Tony Abbott knows that his only chance to be Prime Minister is to beat Kevin Rudd at the next election. This is not because he will be, as he described it, “roadkill” if he loses. He will go too close to winning for that; and it will be because of the closeness that he will become unelectable.

As Glen Milne pointed out in today's Australian, Rudd is unpopular with Caucus and with his ministers. In the event that Julia Gillard withdraws her support he is finished as Prime Minister. If he only just gets over the line then she is likely to withdraw that support half way through the next term of government when the electorate finally gives up on Rudd and his polling goes through the floor. Rudd will be offered his version of the Paris option, which will likely be an academic appointment at a prestigious university.

Abbott knows that he will not beat Gillard in the following election because the women of Australia (even the conservative ones) would not vote out of office at her first election, the first female Prime Minister (unless she was an unmitigated disaster, which Gillard won't be).

So what are Abbott's chances of beating Rudd at the next election? We know that he will throw everything he can at it, however Santamaria's tired Catholic syndicalism won't cut the mustard, it is too open to intellectual challenge. Abbott should have added the caveat that he would refer policies such as his parental leave promise to the Productivity Commission for evaluation, which would have given it a cloak of respectability.

Abbott has yet make a compelling case for change. He has not even developed a compelling narrative just a mixed bag of attacks and populist promises. He needs to focus his attention on Rudd and attack his soft paternalism. His line should be “Rudd tells you what you need, I will ask you what you want”. He should become the champion of the outsiders against the insiders, the mates, who are inevitably the major beneficiaries of managerialist governments. His subtext should be, “Rudd promises the world and delivers Atlases”, as the old American expression goes.

At the same time Abbott needs to adopt hard economic principles that emphasise a fair go for people that help themselves. If he needs promises to support his narrative Abbott should focus on education, and in particular education as the basis for developing a productive enterprise society.

So far Abbott has not shown that he is moving in a direction that would compel voters to concede that they made a mistake at the last election and he is unlikely to beat Rudd on personality alone.