Today I am off to South Australia for the election. I will make a prediction in my weekly radio broadcast, which goes to air on Friday.

However in an act of folly I am prepared to call it early for the blog. My prediction is that the Government will be returned with a slim majority. The rationale for the prediction is as follows:

1. Labor only needs to hold two seats from the group that need less than ten percent swing to go to the Libs.

2. It will hold Hartley and Newlands largely due to the good work done by the Labor machine.

3. It will also win the seat of Mitchell currently held by the independent Hanna.

The chances of a hung parliament are likely to be reduced by the fact that seats such as Frome and Mount Gambier will return to the Libs, however they are unlikely to win enough seats to form government given that Labor has only to hold two seats of the under ten percent swing group.

Of greater interest, in some ways, is what will happen to the majorities of the long term ministers, Atkinson, Foley, Conlon and Rann himself. If, as I suspect, they are considered to be past their use by date, their majorities will sink alarmingly. This could increase the pressure for generational change within the Government.