As was the case in 1998, the coming election could be a “wrong winner” election. A wrong winner election is one where the party that secures the larger two party preferred vote does not form government.

This occurs where one party secures large swings in safe seats but does not get the same magnitude of swing in the marginal seats and therefore does not secure enough seats to form government.

In the case of this election it is possible that Labor could secure big swings to it in safe seats in South Australia and Victoria and lose seats in Queensland and N.S.W. with very small margins. Labor has only to lose twelve seats to lose Government if the three independents and a possible Green member in Melbourne are elected.

In this case Labor could have the bigger 2PP but would not be able to form government. It would only become a wrong winner election if the independents and the green decided to back the Coalition for government.

However the likely outcome, if Labor loses twelve seats is that Labor will form government with the support of the Green member. In this case Rob Oakshott will likely be the Speaker, which would make for a better run Parliament. It would also mean that a Carbon Tax would be introduced into Parliament early in the next term.