Having tipped a hung Parliament in my broadcast on Friday, I am prepared to chance my arm again and say that Julia Gillard will continue as Prime Minister. However there is a caveat; it wont be for more than a year.

Constitutionally Gillard is entitled to stay in power until that power is tested on the floor of the house. However she would naturally prefer to have a new Government sworn in. She can do this by indicating she has the numbers to guarantee supply and survive a no confidence motion. It is likely she will have 73 elected members. With Greens support she has 74. She will need the support of two independents and these are likely to be Windsor and Oakshott.

It is likely that they will demand a quid pro quo by way of Parliamentary reform but Gillard is amenable to this. Beyond these reforms what is likely to persuade the independents to support her is the fact that with Green support she can get legislation through the Senate. The Greens will be in a difficult position: if their man in the reps supports a bill it will be hard for them to reject in the Upper House. They will end up rusted on to the Government. They may get a reciprocal benefit by way of a carbon tax, which will give the Coalition the chance to run a scare campaign (especially if there is also a mining tax).

It will be twelve months before the Opposition is ready to fight another election but by then they will be ready to bring it on. It is likely that Malcolm Turnbull will have been given the job of destroying the National Broadband Network, they will have developed a narrative around the economy and the problems of an out of control public sector and the two speed economy will be well and truly apparent.

On the other hand the Labor party will still be working out what it is about. They will be unsure about internal party reform. There will be the unspoken threat of a Rudd resignation and a by-election that could cost them Government and Gillard’s industrial relations framework wil be beginning to show strains. It could be a while before things settle down.